Science and Pandemics

If it would be not so tragically sad, I would laugh my head of listening to all those scientists, trying to explain how many millions will die because of the current pandemic. It's similar like forecasting the weather ... they are almost always wrong.

Those who are working with predicting the weather are working with advanced computer models, which predict the weather for a certain time, accurate till the minute. Except that they aren't. I look at my computer and the weatherman tells that at this moment it's raining. Terrible. But I'm sitting under the burning sun. How many times did they get it wrong? Too many times to count.

Then I listen to those people, who are using computer models, which predict a dire future: millions of death and multiple millions infected in the United States in the United States! We need to stop everything, stay home and hide under our bed! Close everything and lock the country until they will tell that scientifically it's safe enough to appear from under our bed.

Netanyahu is also on a role and in front of the live TV he is predicting gloom and doom with millions infected and tens of thousands of Israeli death because of the virus. He also claims that the Israeli superior scientists predicted that. So, be prepared!

Those blessed authorities wants us to stay home, hiding under our beds, and close everything down. Get our kids from school, our grandmother and father, everyone under their beds. Close down everything. Don't go to work. Don't go outside, do nothing and sit tight.

Then we have the WHO, who were first telling the world that everything was fine in December, January and February. When the infected were dropping dead around them they started to take notice. Oops. Well, eh, uh ... well ... let me double check my work and my holy computer models. And voila, a day later they came suddenly with their adopted computer models telling the world that we're all f*cked: billions of infected and hundreds of millions dead.

The thing is that those scientists are creating projects to study pandemics for scientific purposes; they use data to study the behavior of pandemics. That's okay, that's what they do already for a long time. Those projects are not suitable for normal users, or not-scientists and specialists not in their fields. What those scientists are doing is creating an initial (computer) model, run it in simulators and making hundreds, if not thousands of corrections until have it right. And when do they know if they are right? At the end of their project, stupid.

And then there is the corona pandemic and our Holy leaders are turning to the scientists and asking when it will end? How many hospital beds do we need? How many resources do we need?

And those poor scientists, suddenly under extreme pressure to produce something! And guess what happens?

One scientists predicts billions of death. The other predicts civilization will end. Another one predicts only a couple of millions of death. Another one predicts something else and all of those predictions contradicting each other.

And then we have the WHO, who's forced to play the political game. They are interested in only one thing: survival. And what does that exactly mean? Money and power and special friends with deep wallets. And so the WHO sings the Chinese tune and declares that everything is well and sunny in January 2020. And indeed, everything is well and sunny, because they say it.

Right.

Anyway, if we want to know what the current actual status is of the pandemic and how long it might take before we can see the light in the darkness, we have two choices:

1. The scientists

2. Common sense.

You are visitors using a computer, tablet or mobile phone. That points to the fact that you all can read and you're able to find this article and operate a computer, tablet or mobile phone, I assume that you have a certain amount of common sense. I would strongly advice you to use your common sense and not to listen to those mad scientists and our dear leaders and especially not to the media. I will try to spell it out:

A pandemic has a start, a peak and an end.

There are two main parts:

1. From start to peak

2. From peak to end

A peak is the highest number of newly infected people reported.

Currently, the world is in the beginning of the second part.Some countries are still at the end of the first part, but more and more countries are in the second part. See this report about the overview.

The numbers don't matter to answer the question when the pandemic will end. No, but the number of new infections do.Cases do not matter (the purpose for Cases are for the scientists). You need to subtract the death and recovered from that number to see the active cases (those who are infected).