Invasion of Taiwan? That's Very Unlikely

China's absolute bluff

If you count 445,000 Taiwanese defending force of today, using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders used at war colleges, China would need more than 1.2 million soldiers, who need to be transported from China to Taiwan in thousands of huge ships, which China doesn't have. Those ships will also be very easy picking by Taiwan's anti-ship missiles.

The whole Chinese invasion force will be slaughtered like pigs.

Using an amphibious assault is also very unlikely. Such force will be fast defeated by the Taiwanese. Above that, there are only few landing sites on the Taiwanese west coast potentially available, but those sites are surrounded by high mountains.

The Chinese amphibious assault will conquer empty beaches before they will be killed.

China's army consists out of a bit more than 2 million soldiers. In case of an invasion of Taiwan, they need the whole Chinese army, and that's very unlikely. Above that, it will cost China a big chunk of their armed forces, which need to be replaced after that, if they can manage to take Taiwan with an invasion, which is very unlikely.

The Chinese will run out of soldiers very soon.

There is also a factor of the weather involved to make an invasion theoretically possible. Only two months are available for that (July and August). The rest of the time, storms and restless seas separates China and Taiwan.

The Chinese have only two months time per year to launch any invasion.

Those are only a few aspects of the costs for a Chinese invasion.

Of course, it's possible that China might impose a sea and air blockade of Taiwan. Of course, they might choose to bomb the island. But again, that leads to huge costs for the Chinese again. But a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? That's more like fantasies, or maybe Chinese wet dreams.

At the moment, all the threats of China are nothing else than a nothing-burger, one big bluff. Also, it seems that the fear of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan is greater for the US and the international community than it actually is for the Taiwanese government. And China, together with Taiwan, are making use of that

.

Actually, it's more likely that the US is under direct threat by China. It seems that it's much cheaper for China to undermine the only remaining superpower.