The Global Strategic Change - Bye NATO, Hello AUKUS

In secret negotiations called Aukus, the US, UK and Australia agreed to intensify their collaboration on key technologies like artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems, and long-range strike capabilities. The EU misread Biden and Johnson, and the new reality is slowly appearing in the European minds. In short, the king (NATO) is dead, long live Anglo-Saxons. Or a fundamental shift from NATO Europe to Aukus Indo-Pacific strategies is executed.

Who are the true allies for the US?

That's simple. The UK and Australia. Those two countries always help supply troops when the US asked for it. You can't say that from France. Or Germany. Or the EU. The EU continues to decline to take any serious responsibility for global peace and security, preferring to see the economic and commercial opportunities in the relationship with China, rather than the threat the Chinese Communist Party represents.

It has resisted U.S. attempts to restrict the Chinese telecom giant Huawei from developing its 5G network. German exports to China continue to be the source of millions of German jobs and in an uncertain international economic climate German politicians have no intention of jeopardizing them, as they have made clear in the election campaign to succeed Angela Merkel.

  • You can say that France and the EU are unreliable for the US with respect to China because of their special relationships. Germany and France have pushed the EU-China comprehensive agreement on investment just before Biden’s inauguration.

  • Germany runs massive export surpluses with China that it wants to protect.

  • Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz are both in favor of extending the bilateral relationship.

  • Europe has also left a door open to Huawei for its 5G networks.

  • It was only the UK that really cut the links. The Chinese ambassador in the UK reacted with unbridled fury. His colleagues in Paris and Berlin, by contrast, stayed quiet. I assume that they have received reassurances through back-channels.

  • The UK is clearly the junior partner in Aukus. But it is the only European country the US can trust in the pursuit of its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.

  • From the UK’s perspective, Brexit allows strategic options that had hitherto been unthinkable. The UK is also part of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing group that comprises them, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Germany is not the real friend of the US. The Greens and the Left Party, possible members of the next German coalition, want to get out of the US nuclear umbrella. And don't forget, that President Trump was the one who was criticizing the NATO states about not paying their part of the organization. To fill the gap, the US was forced to pay.

  • The NATO countries don't have enough forces, and they are not interested to invest in their own defense. They let the US pay for the expenses and the US must deliver the actual forces.

  • Germany is the fourth-largest economy (GDP of $3.86 trillion) in the world, and it's about time to defend themselves. If they choose to go to the green energy fantasy, that's their business.

  • Right or wrong, Germany is more than willing to make natural gas deals with Russia and telecommunication deals with China.

  • Why should the US be defending Germany and the EU in this setup?

Nuclear sharing

The next big bang will be shifted of the nuclear sharing. If the EU is interested in that, they will end up under the French nuclear umbrella.

  • Whether the EU contribute 2% to their defense as was agreed in NATO and what Trump wanted, US troops do not belong in Germany or Europe in general, especially with a new Aukus Indo-Pacific strategy.

  • I don't think that the US is going to abandon the NATO (so quickly), but their focus will be on the Aukus, not the NATO.

  • The next step for the US is adding nations to the Aukus, like Japan, South Korea and maybe even India. And don't expect any other European country will be welcome to the Aukus.

  • The nuclear umbrella will shift to the nations in the pacific.

What about NATO?

Map of NATO Look out, Europe. Prepare yourself for the possible ultimate shock!

Remember the abrupt retreat out of Afghanistan, arranged by the Biden administration without warning his NATO allies, not so long time ago? Remember that the Americans started to pull out of that country (in the wrong order, but who cares, not? It's Biden)?

Remember that everyone was so mystified and bewildered why Biden would ignore his allies in the NATO? Well, now it becomes clear why he's done it, not? He has something new to play with.

Who says that Biden will not do the same with the NATO? On one 'blue Monday' (maybe tomorrow?) suddenly Europe will be shocked at the picture looking at retreating US armed forces. Well, count on the fact that Biden will first pull out the army and then - when he has the time - the American citizens. Let's hope for Europe that Biden forgets his tanks, airplanes, nuclear weapons and the like.

Who are the true enemies for the US?

Not Russia anymore. We have a new one, and that's China. As we have already heard from people in and outside the Biden administration, the focus is China, not Russia. Russia is not the old USSR anymore. It's unlikely that Russia is going to be a threat to the US and even Europe.

China though is making overtures in being the dominant force of the world. They admitted multiple times that they want to surpass the US economically and militarily. They invest trillions of dollars in those endeavors. And they actually started to do such things already, with declaring large (and strategical) areas of the Pacific Ocean as their own! As a country, they show imperialistic tendencies, which were only seen during and before the World War II! They are bullying most of the countries in the Pacific, they threaten several countries with even nuclear war (Japan)! They are provocative towards Taiwan and China is pushing the tension up by the day.

What are the militarily risks for the US as a country?

The US shares the borders with Mexico and Canada. In the east and west, they are protected by two huge oceans, so they don't have any enemy close by. The risk that the US is going to be attacked is nil. But ... there are still risks ...

  1. By any nation with a large fleet

  2. By nuclear attack

So ... why should the US continue to invest in the NATO and pay much more than their own part for the defense of Europe in dollars and resources? It's much better to spend the focus on what really is better for the US itself. The EU are a bunch of big boys and girls, so it's about time they pay themselves for their needs. This is what the global US strategy is already since after the second World War:

  • Any nation, which becomes militarily stronger to the point that it becomes a threat to the US, that needs to be addressed.

    • Not by attacking such nation, but by blocking or surrounding it with superior force. For that reason, the US is building such enormous forces near such nation.

    • That's what the NATO still is doing with the 'poor' Russians.

  • To invest heavily in allies near such potentially dangerous nation. And that's what the US is doing.

And that's the main reason why so many army personnel are all over the world.

Oh God, we want Trump back!

Donald Trump, Ha, ha. Aren't the Europeans begging Trump to come back as fast as possible, yet? They will be. So is China. I bet that the NATO members are suddenly willingly to pay up their share of 2% of their GDP ... they might even increase it with a point or sell their grandmothers to the Chinese. That's much cheaper than that they must create their own armed forces, the so-called European army under the French nuclear umbrella. And then they also need a space force.